
GDP is the most important and widely studied macroeconomic variable. It indicates the state of an economy and is used as a measure of the economic strength of a country. Due to its comprehensive nature, calculating GDP takes a great deal of work and is often revised over time. This has led to the common practice of forecasting GDP using econometric models. This paper introduces a new method for estimating GDP using a unique data set of options whose values are determined by the levels of GDP and the GDP growth rate. The option is market priced which makes it distinct since it is available daily, subject to no revisions and aggregates the market’s opinion about GDP. These option implied values for GDP and GDP growth rate are similar to the concept of implied volatilities. We show that this option improves the GDP growth rate forecasts by 21% compared to conventional econometric models.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 2 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
