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Forecasting Volatility: A Google Trends Augmented EGARCH Model

Authors: Federico Baldi Lanfranchi;

Forecasting Volatility: A Google Trends Augmented EGARCH Model

Abstract

Accurately forecasting volatility is key in many financial applications. In this study, I suggest that individuals gather information online before implementing their trading decisions. In periods of higher investor concern, online information seeking intensifies. By analysing Google search data for a selected set of keywords, I find that changes in Google hits lead changes in market volatility. I show that a regressor based on search engine data can provide a meaningful complement to a two-factor EGARCH model. Results suggest that the augmented model significantly outperforms its restricted counterpart from a forecasting perspective.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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