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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao zbMATH Openarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
zbMATH Open
Article . 2018
Data sources: zbMATH Open
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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Pricing Temperature Derivatives under Weather Forecasts

Pricing temperature derivatives under weather forecasts
Authors: Hess, Markus;

Pricing Temperature Derivatives under Weather Forecasts

Abstract

We investigate the pricing of temperature derivatives under weather forecasts modeled by initially enlarged filtrations. For this purpose, we introduce a mean-reverting temperature model with seasonality and derive expressions for the so-called forward temperature. Although our analysis focuses on cumulative average temperature (CAT) futures, the presented derivation techniques can likewise be applied to other weather derivatives such as heating degree day (HDD) or cooling degree day (CDD) futures, for instance. We also treat option pricing and utility maximizing portfolio selection in temperature markets under additional information on future weather behavior. We finally prove an anticipative sufficient stochastic minimum principle in an enlarged filtration setup and apply the result to minimal variance hedging of temperature derivatives under weather forecasts. In this context, we derive explicit minimal variance hedging portfolios for different weather-related claims.

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Keywords

enlarged filtration, information premium, weather forecast, Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.), stochastic differential equation, stochastic minimum principle, Processes with independent increments; Lévy processes, optimal portfolio selection, minimal variance hedging, CAT futures, temperature derivative, Derivative securities (option pricing, hedging, etc.), stochastic control, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, Diffusion processes, option pricing

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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