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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article
License: CC BY NC
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Journal of Financial Economics
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License: CC BY NC
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Journal of Financial Economics
Article . 2004 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Predicting Returns with Financial Ratios

Authors: Lewellen, Jonathan;

Predicting Returns with Financial Ratios

Abstract

This article provides a new test of the predictive ability of aggregate financial ratios. Predictive regressions are subject to small-sample biases, but the correction in previous studies can substantially understate forecasting power. Dividend yield predicts aggregate market returns from 1946 - 2000, as well as in various subperiods. Book-to-market and the earnings-price ratio predict returns during the shorter 1963 - 2000 sample. The evidence remains strong despite the unusual price run-up in recent years.

Keywords

Predictive Regressions, Expected Returns, Small-sample Bias,

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
682
Top 0.1%
Top 0.1%
Top 10%
hybrid