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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2015
Data sources: EconStor
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Estimation of NAIRU with Inflation Expectation Data

Authors: Wei Cui; Wolfgang K. Härdle; Weining Wang;

Estimation of NAIRU with Inflation Expectation Data

Abstract

Estimating natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is important for understanding the joint dynamics of unemployment, inflation, and inflation expectation. However, existing literature falls short in endogenizing inflation expectation together with NAIRU in a model consistent way. We develop and estimate a structural model with forward and backward looking Phillips curve. Inflation expectation is treated as a function of state variables and we use survey data as its observations. We find out that the estimated NAIRU using our methodology tracks the unemployment process closely except for the high inflation period around 1970. Moreover, the estimated Bayesian credible sets are narrower and our model leads to better inflation and unemployment forecasts. These results suggest that monetary policy was very effective during the sample periods and there was not much room for policy improvement.

Country
Germany
Keywords

HD, Inflation Expectation, ddc:330, 330 Wirtschaft, ddc:310, NAIRU, 310 Sammlungen allgemeiner Statistiken, NAIRU; Inflation Expectation; Targeting, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, E23, E24, C32, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:E23, jel: jel:E24

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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1
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