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Journal of Monetary Economics
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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Research . 2021
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The FOMC Risk Shift

Authors: Kroencke, T. A.; Schmeling, M.; Schrimpf, A.;

The FOMC Risk Shift

Abstract

We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call "risk shifts", are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion's share of stock price movements around FOMC announcements; (ii) that they are accompanied by significant investor fund flows, suggesting that investors react heterogeneously to monetary policy news; and (iii) that price pressure amplifies the stock market response to monetary policy news. Our results imply that central bank information effects are overshadowed by short-term dynamics stemming from investor rebalancing activities and are likely to be more difficult to identify than previously thought.

Countries
Switzerland, Germany, United Kingdom
Keywords

330, Portfolio Rebalancing, ddc:330, Monetary Policy Surprises, E44, G10, Equity Premium, G12, Price Pressures, Fund Flows

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    popularity
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    Top 1%
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
60
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green