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The Walk-Down to Beatable Forecasts: International Evidence

Authors: Hongping Tan; Jiangfeng Wang; Michael Welker; Zhang Ran;

The Walk-Down to Beatable Forecasts: International Evidence

Abstract

We use the framework developed in Richardson et al. (2004) to identify country, firm and analyst characteristics that we expect to be associated with the prevalence of the analyst walk-down forecast pattern. Based on a large sample of 50,649 analysts covering 33,645 firms from 46 countries during 1992-2014, we find that the walk-down pattern positively correlates with country characteristics related to insider trading restrictions and equity sales. It also positively relates to the stock market reward for beating analyst forecasts, firm-level characteristics underlying management concerns with share prices after earnings announcements, and analysts’ incentives to cooperate with management. The effects of these factors on the walk-down pattern are more pronounced in countries with better media-coverage institutions. Overall, these findings suggest that capital market incentives affecting the communication between managers and analysts and the resulting analyst forecast bias involves various forces including a country’s institutional infrastructure, and firm and analyst characteristics.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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