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Volatility Processes and Volatility Forecast with Long Memory

Authors: Gilles Zumbach;

Volatility Processes and Volatility Forecast with Long Memory

Abstract

We introduce a new family of processes that include the long memory (power law) in the volatility correlation. This is achieved by measuring the historical volatility on a set of increasing time horizons and by computing the resulting effective volatility by a sum with power law weights. In the limit where only one component is included, the models are equivalent to GARCH(1,1) and I-GARCH(1). The models have 2 parameters (integrated processes) or 4 parameters (mean reverting processes). Volatility forecast in the context of quadratic processes is discussed, in particular as a mean to estimate process parameters. Using hourly data, the empirical properties of the new models are compared to existing models (GARCH, FIGARCH, ...), in particular log-likelihood estimates and volatility forecast errors. These studies show the advantage of the long memory processes as they give a good description of the empirical data from 1 hour to 1 month, with the same parameters.

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    influence
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
45
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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