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Behavioural Biases and the Pricing-Kernel Puzzle

Authors: Gordon Gemmill;

Behavioural Biases and the Pricing-Kernel Puzzle

Abstract

The pricing-kernel, when estimated from index options, appears to show risk-loving behaviour for small gains and losses. Although this puzzle could be caused by option buyers using subjective probability-weighting, such weighting generates an unrealistically large (and time-varying) risk-premium. A better explanation is that limited arbitrage allows the market to be segmented into put buyers on the downside and call buyers on the upside. If the put buyers are pessimistic and underconfident, but the call buyers are optimistic and overconfident, the perceived physical distribution is highly skewed. Using option prices over a period of 15 years, we show that the segmented model can solve the puzzle. It also demonstrates some well-documented features, including: a small aggregate risk-premium, loss-aversion, and an impact of volatility on the kernel.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
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