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The European Physical Journal B
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3...
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2002
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Optimal Investment Horizons

Authors: Ingve Simonsen; Mogens H. Jensen; Anders Johansen;

Optimal Investment Horizons

Abstract

In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, i.e., the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or how bad) the asset performs over that given period of time. It has been established that the distribution of returns exhibits "fat tails" indicating that large returns occur more frequently than what is expected from standard Gaussian stochastic processes [1, 2, 3]. Instead of estimating this "fat tail" distribution of returns, we propose here an alternative approach, which is outlined by addressing the following question: What is the smallest time interval needed for an asset to cross a fixed return level of say 10%? For a particular asset, we refer to this time as the investment horizon and the corresponding distribution as the investment horizon distribution. This latter distribution complements that of returns and provides new and possibly crucial information for portfolio design and risk-management, as well as for pricing of more exotic options. By considering historical financial data, exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we obtain a novel set of probability distributions for the investment horizons which can be used to estimate the optimal investment horizon for a stock or a future contract.

Keywords

FOS: Economics and business, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech), Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, FOS: Physical sciences, Chaotic Dynamics (nlin.CD), Computational Physics (physics.comp-ph), Nonlinear Sciences - Chaotic Dynamics, Physics - Computational Physics, Condensed Matter - Statistical Mechanics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
68
Top 10%
Top 1%
Top 10%
Green
bronze