
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2943868
The paper examines business cycle (BC) features of selected Central Asian (CA) countries - Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan - and the Russian Federation, from the first quarter of 2000 through the fourth quarter of 2011. Key findings include the following: (i) output fluctuations in these countries are more volatile than in developed countries; (ii) unlike in the Russian Federation, the duration of business cycles in the CA countries is shorter compared to that of developed countries; (iii) with the exception of Kazakhstan, household consumption is more volatile than output; (iv) there is a mixed picture on the BC properties of other main macroeconomic variables in these countries; (v) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, monetary shocks matter for BC fluctuations; (vi) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, government expenditures are found to be procyclical, which may indicate the inefficiency of fiscal policy in stabilizing economy following negative shocks in these countries; (vii) Kyrgyz and Tajik BCs are not synchronized with either Russian or Kazakh BCs; (viii) Kazakh and Russian BCs are synchronized, indicating the increasing degree of economic integration between the countries, and (ix) with the exception of Tajikistan, there is a positive correlation between BCs in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan with fluctuations in the global prices of their main export commodities: gold and oil.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 1 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
