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Business Cycles in Central Asia and the Russian Federation

Authors: Nurbek Jenish;

Business Cycles in Central Asia and the Russian Federation

Abstract

The paper examines business cycle (BC) features of selected Central Asian (CA) countries - Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan - and the Russian Federation, from the first quarter of 2000 through the fourth quarter of 2011. Key findings include the following: (i) output fluctuations in these countries are more volatile than in developed countries; (ii) unlike in the Russian Federation, the duration of business cycles in the CA countries is shorter compared to that of developed countries; (iii) with the exception of Kazakhstan, household consumption is more volatile than output; (iv) there is a mixed picture on the BC properties of other main macroeconomic variables in these countries; (v) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, monetary shocks matter for BC fluctuations; (vi) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, government expenditures are found to be procyclical, which may indicate the inefficiency of fiscal policy in stabilizing economy following negative shocks in these countries; (vii) Kyrgyz and Tajik BCs are not synchronized with either Russian or Kazakh BCs; (viii) Kazakh and Russian BCs are synchronized, indicating the increasing degree of economic integration between the countries, and (ix) with the exception of Tajikistan, there is a positive correlation between BCs in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan with fluctuations in the global prices of their main export commodities: gold and oil.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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