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Entender Y Combatir El Crimen: Modelo De Comportamiento Criminal Basado En La Provisiin De Informaciin (Understanding and Fighting Crime: Model for Criminal Behavior Based on Information Provision)

Authors: Nicolas Rodriguez; Andres Zambrano;

Entender Y Combatir El Crimen: Modelo De Comportamiento Criminal Basado En La Provisiin De Informaciin (Understanding and Fighting Crime: Model for Criminal Behavior Based on Information Provision)

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: Las ciudades de Colombia mantienen indices altos de delito a pesar del aumento del gasto en defensa y seguridad. Este trabajo propone y analiza la provision de informacion como una estrategia de bajo costo que puede ser efectiva para la disuasion del crimen. Para mostrar su efectividad, desarrollamos un juego dinamico con informacion imperfecta entre Autoridad y Criminal. En este juego la Autoridad debe decidir si asignar o no un policia a un area determinada y si enviar o no una senal. Por su lado, el Criminal solo observa la senal y debe decidir si comete el crimen o no. Si decide cometerlo sera atrapado unicamente si un policia esta presente. Uno de los equilibrios muestra que el uso adecuado de la senal puede desincentivar el crimen a traves de una mayor percepcion de captura sin incurrir en altos costos como el incremento del pie de fuerza. English Abstract: Despite authorities’ increase in defense and security expenditure, cities in Colombia maintain high delinquency rates. This document proposes and analyzes the provision of information as a low cost strategy that could be effective in crime reduction. To show its effectiveness, we develop a dynamic game with imperfect information between an Authority and a potential Criminal. The Authority decides whether to assign a policeman or not and whether to send a signal or not. The Criminal only observes the signal and must decide whether to commit the crime or not. If he decides to commit the crime, he will be arrested only if there is a policeman. One of the equilibria shows that the adequate use of the signal can deter crime through a greater perception of capture without having to incur in high costs such as increasing the police manpower. We also relate equilibria to different stages of development.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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