
handle: 10419/259828
We suggest that the real exchange rate between the major currencies in the post-Bretton Woods period can be described by a stationary, two state Markov switching AR(1) model. Based on the forecast performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, we find that this model out-performs two competing models where the real exchange rate is non-stationary. We also find that the existence of different regimes, as in the Markov switching model, is consistent with the common finding of unit roots in the real exchange rate.
ddc:330, Markov switching autoregressive models, Markov models, simulation, Faculty of Social Sciences, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/FacultyOfSocialSciences, forecasts, Real exchange rates; Markov switching autoregressive models; forecasts; simulation, Real exchange rates, C53, C22, F31, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:C22
ddc:330, Markov switching autoregressive models, Markov models, simulation, Faculty of Social Sciences, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/FacultyOfSocialSciences, forecasts, Real exchange rates; Markov switching autoregressive models; forecasts; simulation, Real exchange rates, C53, C22, F31, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:C22
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