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Journal of International Money and Finance
Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2001 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2000
Data sources: EconStor
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Real Exchange Rates and Switching Regimes

Authors: Bergman, Ulf Michael; Hansson, Jesper;

Real Exchange Rates and Switching Regimes

Abstract

We suggest that the real exchange rate between the major currencies in the post-Bretton Woods period can be described by a stationary, two state Markov switching AR(1) model. Based on the forecast performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, we find that this model out-performs two competing models where the real exchange rate is non-stationary. We also find that the existence of different regimes, as in the Markov switching model, is consistent with the common finding of unit roots in the real exchange rate.

Country
Denmark
Keywords

ddc:330, Markov switching autoregressive models, Markov models, simulation, Faculty of Social Sciences, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/FacultyOfSocialSciences, forecasts, Real exchange rates; Markov switching autoregressive models; forecasts; simulation, Real exchange rates, C53, C22, F31, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:C22

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    selected citations
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    54
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
54
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze