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Ricardian Equivalence and Sovereign Default Risk

Authors: Stefan Eichler; Ju Hyun Pyun;

Ricardian Equivalence and Sovereign Default Risk

Abstract

We study the impact of sovereign default risk on the private–public savings offset. Using data on 80 countries for the period 1989–2010, we find robust evidence for a U-shaped pattern in the private–public savings offset in foreign currency sovereign credit ratings. While Ricardian Equivalence holds approximately at intermediate levels of sovereign solvency, it breaks down at very low and very high levels of sovereign default risk. In particular, the U-shaped pattern is an emerging market phenomenon as well as confirmed by external public debt, but not domestic public debt. A key result is that in the presence of foreign ownership of sovereign bonds, sovereign default constitutes a net wealth gain for domestic consumers as the present value of saved future taxes outweighs their wealth loss on bond holding. Thus, in times of high default risk, consumers appear to anticipate that the government would rather dilute bondholders than repay sovereign debt using higher taxes.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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