Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
addClaim

On J M Keynes's Rejection, in General, of Ramsey's Subjective Theory of Probability: The KeynessTownshend Exchanges of 1937 and 1938

Authors: Michael Emmett Brady;

On J M Keynes's Rejection, in General, of Ramsey's Subjective Theory of Probability: The KeynessTownshend Exchanges of 1937 and 1938

Abstract

J M Keynes rejected Ramsey’s subjective theory of probability in general. He did accept Ramsey’s betting quotient approach in the special case where the weight of the evidence, w, equaled one so that all the probabilities were linear, additive, precise, exact, definite, single number answers. In general, Keynes’s probabilities were indeterminate, interval valued probabilities that were non additive and nonlinear because the weight, w, was less than 1. F.Y. Edgeworth, Bertrand Russell, and Edwin Bidell Wilson all recognized the interval valued nature of Keynes’s probabilities (See my Reviewing the Reviewers of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability, 2016). The Keynes – Townshend exchanges provide incontrovertible evidence that Keynes never accepted Ramsey’s subjective approach to probability because there was no place in that theory for interval valued probability or for the concept of the weight of the evidence, since, for Ramsey, the subjective estimate of a degree of belief is the confidence a decision maker has in the betting odds while for Keynes, it is the degree of rational belief, not the degree of belief.The Keynes –Townshend exchanges, if carefully read and digested, contains the relevant evidence that allows a reader to conclude that Keynes remained an adherent practitioner of his theory of logical probability his entire life. He never changed his mind.Overlooking the Keynes – Townshend exchanges of 1937-38 explains why economists and academicians have failed to see the close connections that exist between the GT and TP.

Related Organizations
  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!