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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2012
Data sources: EconStor
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Forecast Based Pricing of Weather Derivatives

Authors: Wolfgang Karl Härdle; Brenda López-Cabrera; Matthias Ritter;

Forecast Based Pricing of Weather Derivatives

Abstract

Forecasting based pricing of Weather Derivatives (WDs) is a new approach in valuation of contingent claims on nontradable underlyings. Standard techniques are based on historical weather data. Forward-looking information such as meteorological forecasts or the implied market price of risk (MPR) are often not incorporated. We adopt a risk neutral approach (for each location) that allows the incorporation of meteorological forecasts in the framework of WD pricing. We study weather Risk Premiums (RPs) implied from either the information MPR gain or the meteorological forecasts. The size of RPs is interesting for investors and issuers of weather contracts to take advantages of geographic diversification, hedging effects and price determinations. By conducting an empirical analysis to London and Rome WD data traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), we find out that either incorporating the MPR or the forecast outperforms the standard pricing techniques.

Country
Germany
Keywords

G29, N23, ddc:300, Weather derivatives, weather derivatives, Finanzderivat, Weather derivatives, seasonal variation, temperature, risk premia, Prognoseverfahren, Meteorologie, USA, seasonal variation, G19, 300 Sozialwissenschaften, ddc:330, N53, Q59, temperature, Börsenkurs, risk premia, Wetter, Optionspreistheorie, G22, Theorie, Schätzung, jel: jel:G22, jel: jel:G29, jel: jel:N23, jel: jel:N53, jel: jel:G19, jel: jel:Q59

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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