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The Power of Past Stock Returns to Explain Future Stock Returns

Authors: Clifford S. Asness;

The Power of Past Stock Returns to Explain Future Stock Returns

Abstract

Researchers have long argued over whether strategies based on past stock returns have power to explain future stock returns. This paper finds no convincing evidence that either short-run or long-run contrarian strategies represent important factors for explaining the cross-section of stock returns. In contrast, the properly specified one-year momentum strategy has explanatory power for stock returns when used alone, when tested against size and book-to-market, and when subjected to exhaustive robustness checks. We conclude that one-year momentum represents a necessary third factor, along with firm size and book-to-market, for explaining the cross-section of stock returns.

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    Top 10%
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
34
Top 10%
Top 1%
Top 10%
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