
handle: 10419/60618
We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in the U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics amongst unemployment rates disaggregated for 7 age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find that demographic adjustments can account for a great deal of secular changes in the unemployment rates, particularly the abrupt increase in the 1970s and 1980s and the subsequent decrease in the last 18 years.
Markovscher Prozess, Markov Switching, Unemployment, Common Factor, Asymmetries, Business Cycle, Baby Boom, Bayesian Methods, Konjunktur, ddc:330, Arbeitslosigkeit, Faktorenanalyse, Markov switching, unemployment, common factor, asymmetries, business cycle, baby boom, Bayesian methods, Unemployment ; Business cycles ; Econometric models, USA, Schätzung, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32
Markovscher Prozess, Markov Switching, Unemployment, Common Factor, Asymmetries, Business Cycle, Baby Boom, Bayesian Methods, Konjunktur, ddc:330, Arbeitslosigkeit, Faktorenanalyse, Markov switching, unemployment, common factor, asymmetries, business cycle, baby boom, Bayesian methods, Unemployment ; Business cycles ; Econometric models, USA, Schätzung, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32
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