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Part of book or chapter of book
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Empirical Economics
Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
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Article . 2001 . Peer-reviewed
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Part of book or chapter of book . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
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Research . 2001
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Markov Switching in Disaggregate Unemployment Rates

Authors: Marcelle Chauvet; Chinhui Juhn; Simon M. Potter;

Markov Switching in Disaggregate Unemployment Rates

Abstract

We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in the U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics amongst unemployment rates disaggregated for 7 age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find that demographic adjustments can account for a great deal of secular changes in the unemployment rates, particularly the abrupt increase in the 1970s and 1980s and the subsequent decrease in the last 18 years.

Keywords

Markovscher Prozess, Markov Switching, Unemployment, Common Factor, Asymmetries, Business Cycle, Baby Boom, Bayesian Methods, Konjunktur, ddc:330, Arbeitslosigkeit, Faktorenanalyse, Markov switching, unemployment, common factor, asymmetries, business cycle, baby boom, Bayesian methods, Unemployment ; Business cycles ; Econometric models, USA, Schätzung, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Average
Top 10%
Average
bronze