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The Value-Relevance of Book Value, Current Earnings, and Management Forecasts of Earnings

Authors: Koji Ota;

The Value-Relevance of Book Value, Current Earnings, and Management Forecasts of Earnings

Abstract

This paper investigates the value-relevance of book value, earnings, and management forecasts of earnings in Japan over the past twenty years. Although most value-relevance studies in the U.S. use return and price based models whose theoretical foundations are derived from the Ohlson (1995) linear information model, other information, v, in the Ohlson's model is ignored in both types of model. This research exploits the unique setting in Japan where managers simultaneously announce the most recently completed period's earnings as well as forecasts of next period's earnings. In this case, management forecasts are available for use as a proxy for v. The results in this paper indicate that management forecasts of earnings (changes) have the highest correlation with stock price (returns) and the incremental explanatory power of current earnings (changes) almost disappears when management forecasts of earnings (changes) are included in the models. The market also appears to place more importance on management forecast information when firms are growing rapidly and when firms' current earnings exceed the forecasts made at the beginning of the period.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
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