
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.280876
This paper investigates the value-relevance of book value, earnings, and management forecasts of earnings in Japan over the past twenty years. Although most value-relevance studies in the U.S. use return and price based models whose theoretical foundations are derived from the Ohlson (1995) linear information model, other information, v, in the Ohlson's model is ignored in both types of model. This research exploits the unique setting in Japan where managers simultaneously announce the most recently completed period's earnings as well as forecasts of next period's earnings. In this case, management forecasts are available for use as a proxy for v. The results in this paper indicate that management forecasts of earnings (changes) have the highest correlation with stock price (returns) and the incremental explanatory power of current earnings (changes) almost disappears when management forecasts of earnings (changes) are included in the models. The market also appears to place more importance on management forecast information when firms are growing rapidly and when firms' current earnings exceed the forecasts made at the beginning of the period.
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