
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2797082
handle: 10419/145697 , 10419/130752 , 10419/154431
Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a market-based measure of inflation expectations - to macroeconomic surprises in the euro area. Compared to the pre-crisis period, surprises have a much stronger effect on spot ILS rates during the crisis. Medium-term forward ILS rates remain insensitive to news most of the time, which implies inflation anchoring. Only short periods of sensitivity on the part of medium-term forward ILS rates are identified at times of low inflation or recession. The sensitivity is lower over more distant forecast horizons such that medium-term sensitivity represents an inflation adjustment process and provides no evidence for a de-anchoring of inflation expectations or a loss of credibility for the Eurosystem's policy target.
inflation-linked swaps, inflation expectations, Inflation Anchoring, ddc:330, G14, Central Banking, inflation anchoring, Event Study, Inflation-Linked Swaps, E44, G12, central banking, event study, E31, Inflation Expectations
inflation-linked swaps, inflation expectations, Inflation Anchoring, ddc:330, G14, Central Banking, inflation anchoring, Event Study, Inflation-Linked Swaps, E44, G12, central banking, event study, E31, Inflation Expectations
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