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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2013
Data sources: EconStor
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Disentangling Economic Recessions and Depressions

Authors: Bertrand Candelon; Norbert Metiu; Stefan Straetmans;

Disentangling Economic Recessions and Depressions

Abstract

We propose a nonparametric test that distinguishes 'depressions' and 'booms' from ordinary recessions and expansions. Depressions and booms are defined as coming from another underlying process than recessions and expansions. We find four depressions and booms in the NBER business cycle between 1919 and 2009, including the Great Depression and the World War II boom. Our results suggest that the recent Great Recession does not qualify as a depression. Multinomial logistic regressions show that stock returns, output growth, and inflation exhibit predictive power for depressions. Surprisingly, the term spread is not a leading indicator of depressions, in contrast to recessions.

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Keywords

Leading indicators, Nonparametric statistics, ddc:330, Depression, Business cycles, Multinomial logistic regression, Outlier, Business cycles, Depression, Multinomial logistic regression, Outlier, C35, C14, Business cycles,Depression,Leading indicators,Multinomial logistic regression,Nonparametric statistics,Outlier, E32, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C35, jel: jel:C14

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze