Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
Copyright policy )Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
We analyze the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960–2008. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in output, consumption, and investment into a global factor, factors specific to country groups, and country‐specific factors. We find that during 1985–2008, there is some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among industrial economies and among emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there is a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. We conclude that there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
- University of Missouri Health System United States
- Johns Hopkins University United States
- University of Missouri United States
- University of Virginia United States
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis United States
Konjunktur, Welt, Industriestaaten, Decoupling, Globalization,Business cycles,Macroeconomic fluctuations,Convergence,Decoupling, decoupling, Globalisierung, C32, C11, E32, globalization, business cycles, macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, convergence, ddc:330, Konjunkturzusammenhang, macroeconomic fluctuations, Business cycles, Schwellenländer, business cycles, Business cycles;Economic conditions;Developing countries;Developed countries;Spillovers;Globalization;macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,, Entwicklungskonvergenz, Convergence, Globalization, Macroeconomic fluctuations, F41, F42, jel: jel:F42, jel: jel:F41, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C11
Konjunktur, Welt, Industriestaaten, Decoupling, Globalization,Business cycles,Macroeconomic fluctuations,Convergence,Decoupling, decoupling, Globalisierung, C32, C11, E32, globalization, business cycles, macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, convergence, ddc:330, Konjunkturzusammenhang, macroeconomic fluctuations, Business cycles, Schwellenländer, business cycles, Business cycles;Economic conditions;Developing countries;Developed countries;Spillovers;Globalization;macroeconomic fluctuations, convergence, decoupling, business cycle, globalization period, business cycle fluctuations,, Entwicklungskonvergenz, Convergence, Globalization, Macroeconomic fluctuations, F41, F42, jel: jel:F42, jel: jel:F41, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C11
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