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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2007 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2007
Data sources: EconStor
EconStor
Research . 2006
Data sources: EconStor
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Money in Monetary Policy Design Under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve Versus Ecb-Style Cross-Checking

Authors: Beck, Günter W.; Wieland, Volker;

Money in Monetary Policy Design Under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve Versus Ecb-Style Cross-Checking

Abstract

The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much criticism for this decision. In this paper, we explore possible justifications. The case against including money in the central bank's interest rate rule is based on a standard model of the monetary transmission process that underlies many contributions to research on monetary policy in the last two decades. Of course, if one allows for a direct effect of money on output or inflation as in the empirical "two-pillar" Phillips curves estimated in some recent contributions, it would be optimal to include a measure of (long-run) money growth in the rule. In this paper, we develop a justification for including money in the interest rate rule by allowing for imperfect knowledge regarding unobservables such as potential output and equilibrium interest rates. We formulate a novel characterization of ECB-style monetary cross-checking and show that it can generate substantial stabilization benefits in the event of persistent policy misperceptions regarding potential output. Such misperceptions cause a bias in policy setting. We find that cross-checking and changing interest rates in response to sustained deviations of long-run money growth helps the central bank to overcome this bias. Our argument in favor of ECB-style cross-checking does not require direct effects of money on output or inflation.

Country
Germany
Keywords

Phillips Curve, Geldpolitik, 330, quantity theory, monetary policy, monetary policy,quantity theory,Phillips curve,European Central Bank,policy under uncertainty, Policy Under Uncertainty, Monetary Policy,Quantity Theory,Phillips Curve,European Central Bank,Policy Under Uncertainty, Zentralbank, Monetary Policy, European Central Bank; monetary policy; monetary policy under uncertainty; money; Phillips curve; quantity theory, 339, Quantitätstheorie, E58, Quantity Theory, E52, Phillips-Kurve, E32, Europäische Union, ddc:330, Phillips curve, policy under uncertainty, Entscheidungsregel, European Central Bank, Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit, Notenbank, EU-Staaten, E41, E43, jel: jel:E43, jel: jel:E41, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:E58, ddc: ddc:330

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze