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Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning and European Inflation Dynamics

Authors: Weber, Anke;

Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning and European Inflation Dynamics

Abstract

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning performs well in out-of-sample forecasting. It is also shown that households in high inflation countries are using higher best fitting constant gain parameters than those in low inflation countries. They are hence able to pick up structural changes faster. Professional forecasters update their information sets more frequently than households. Furthermore, household expectations in the Euro Area have not converged to the inflation goal of the ECB, which is to keep inflation below to but close to 2% in the medium run. This contrasts the findings for professional experts, which seem to be more inclined to incorporate the implications of monetary union for the convergence in inflation rates into their expectations.

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Keywords

Frankreich, Italien, Monetary policy,heterogeneous expectations,adaptive learning,survey expectations, Monetary policy, Informationsverhalten, Deutschland, Niederlande, E31, Inflation Targeting, Spanien, ddc:330, E37, adaptive learning, Inflationskonvergenz, D84, heterogeneous expectations, Erwartungstheorie, Inflationsrate, Inflationserwartung, EU-Staaten, survey expectations, Lernprozess, Schätzung, jel: jel:D84, jel: jel:E31, jel: jel:E37

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Average
Average
Average
bronze