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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
mEDRA
Book . 2016
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EconStor
Research . 2014
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Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails

Authors: Davide Delle Monache; Ivan Petrella;

Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel and flexible framework to estimate autoregressive models with time-varying parameters. Our setup nests various adaptive algorithms that are commonly used in the macroeconometric literature, such as learning-expectations and forgetting-factor algorithms. These are generalized along several directions: specifically, we allow for both Student-t distributed innovations as well as time-varying volatility. Meaningful restrictions are imposed to the model parameters, so as to attain local stationarity and bounded mean values. The model is applied to the analysis of inflation dynamics. Allowing for heavy-tails leads to a significant improvement in terms of fit and forecast. Moreover, it proves to be crucial in order to obtain well-calibrated density forecasts.

Keywords

Time-varying parameters, Score-driven models, Heavy-tails, Adaptive algorithms, Inflation, ddc:330, ems, Adaptive algorithms, Inflation, C51, Time-varying parameters, Heavy-tails, Score-driven models, Time-Varying Parameters, Score-driven Models, Heavy-Tails, Adaptive Algorithms, Inflation., C53, C22, E31, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:E31

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    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    18
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
18
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
bronze