
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2771019
Konstantinidi et. al. state in their broad survey of Volatility-Index forecasting: "The question whether the dynamics of implied volatility indices can be predicted has received little attention". The overall result of this and the quoted papers is: The VIX is too a very limited extend (R2 is typically 0.01) predictable, but the effect is economically not significant.This paper confirms this finding if (and only if) the forecast horizon is limited to one day. But there is no practical need to do so. One can - and usually does - hold a VIX Future or Option several trading days. It is shown that a simple model has a highly significant predictive power over a longer time horizon. The forecasts improve realistic trading strategies.
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
