
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2748451
The Renminbi surprised the World markets by its unexpected devaluations first in August 2015 and then in January 2016. Will the Renminbi devalue again? In this paper, the questions of whether the Renminbi is over-valued, whether the level of Chinese official foreign exchange reserves is adequate, and whether a devaluation is in the best interests of China are considered. The paper also discusses the risks faced by the Renminbi. But the most important consideration is how the confidence of the Chinese people in the Renminbi, which depends on whether it retains its purchasing power, both domestic and overseas, can be credibly maintained. The conclusion of this paper is that the Renminbi is unlikely to devalue abruptly and significantly going forward, even though there may be small fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate.
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