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Implied Correlation and Market Returns

Authors: Alejandro Bernales; Marcela Valenzuela;

Implied Correlation and Market Returns

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that the implied correlation is an indicator of market-wide risk. From a time-series approach, we analyze whether aggregate implied correlation contains information on future market returns. We document that it explains an important fraction of the variation in aggregate market excess returns, with high implied correlation inducing an increase in subsequent market returns. The predictive power is stronger at a forecast of quarterly and semi- annual return horizons and is not captured by standard predictors like valuation ratios and business cycle variables. Moreover, we show that the information con- tent of the correlation risk premium and realized correlation on market returns is fully driven by the implied correlation.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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