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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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The Great Moderation in Historical Perspective. Is it that Great?

Authors: María Dolores Gadea; Ana Gómez-Loscos; Gabriel Perez-Quiros;

The Great Moderation in Historical Perspective. Is it that Great?

Abstract

The Great Moderation (GM) is widely documented in the literature as one of the most important changes in the US business cycle. All the papers that analyze it use post WWII data. In this paper, for the first time we place the GM in a long historical perspective, stretching back a century and a half, which includes secular changes in the economic structure and a substantial reduction of output volatility. We find two robust structural breaks in volatility at the end of WWII and in the mid-eighties, showing that the GM still holds in the longer perspective. Furthermore, we show that GM volatility reduction is only linked to expansion features. We also date the US business cycle in the long run, finding that volatility plays a primary role in the definition of the business cycle, which has important consequences for econometricians and forecasters.

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Keywords

business cycle, volatility, structural breaks, secular changes, Business cycle; Secular changes; Structural Breaks; volatility, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C22

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
bronze