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Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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The Role of Outliers and Oil Price Shocks on Volatility of Metal Prices

Authors: Behmiri, NB; MANERA, MATTEO;

The Role of Outliers and Oil Price Shocks on Volatility of Metal Prices

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the price volatility of metals, using GARCH and GJR models. First, we examine the persistence of volatility and the leverage effect across metal markets taking into account the presence of outliers. Second, we estimate the effects of oil price shocks on the price volatility of metals, allowing for asymmetric responses. We use daily spot prices for aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold, silver, palladium and platinum. We find that returns have a high degree of volatility persistence before and after correcting for outliers, outliers bias the estimation of GARCH and GJR models, and removing outliers improves volatility modelling. However, Student-t-based specifications outperform outliers correction in capturing volatility. Moreover, we document inverse leverage effects for seven metals, leverage effect for copper and no leverage effects for nickel and palladium. Finally, price volatility of metals reacts differently and asymmetrically to oil price shocks.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Commodities, ddc:330, G13, Q4, Commodities; Metals; Oil price; Outliers; Volatility;, C1, Metals, Volatility, Oil Price, Outliers, Metal markets; volatility; GARCH-type models; outlier detection; crude oil price

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    93
    popularity
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    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
93
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze