
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2656453
Introduction can one do when the economy has been experiencing stagnation and falling prices for two decades? Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes that his response, the three-pronged Abenomics is the correct answer that can pull Japan out of the “Lost Decades”. Japan and the world are looking at this economic experiment with much intent, and this paper aims to answer the question on everyone’s mind: “Is it working?” This paper attempts to do this by providing a preliminary assessment of these policies. Japanese economic policy is an issue worth looking into for several reasons. Firstly, Japan’s macroeconomic environment is an unprecedentedly challenging one; stagnation for over two decades, a deflationary period longer than that of the Great Depression of 1873 (Metzler, 2013), and a pessimistic corporate outlook. All this is further exacerbated by a diminishing demographic dividend. Previous policy responses have been criticized as being insufficiently aggressive in tackling Japan’s economic woes. This is where Abenomics comes in; three massive stimulus packages, aggressive monetary easing neither the US Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank has dared attempt, and structural reforms to address underlying long term issues in the Japanese economy. If Abenomics works out, it will be credited with one of the most spectacular economic comebacks in history. But Abenomics also has implications beyond the Japanese archipelago. Developed countries are fearing that they themselves will experience their own lost decade in the aftermath of the recession of 2007. Policymakers in economies such as the United States and the European Union have crafted policies which share similarities with Shinzo Abe’s package. Should Abe’s project fail, doubt will settle on their own policy responses as well. Will Abenomics success lead to its emulation in other countries? Or will it end up being a precautionary tale of macroeconomic folly? This is the question this essay tries to answer.
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