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SSRN Electronic Journal
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NBER Macroeconomics Annual
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Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy

Authors: Chun Chang; Kaiji Chen; Daniel F. Waggoner; Tao Zha;

Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy

Abstract

We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. The departure of our theoretical model from standard ones offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy.

Keywords

ddc:330, labor share, between-sector effect, long-term versus short-term loans, heavy versus light sectors, F4, E, lending frictions, G1, incentive compatibility, reallocation, total factor productivity growth, reallocation; between-sector effect; total factor productivity growth; heavy versus light sectors; long-term versus short-term loans; labor share; lending frictions; incentive compatibility, jel: jel:H81, jel: jel:G1, jel: jel:E2, jel: jel:E3, jel: jel:F4, jel: jel:E5

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    selected citations
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    171
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
171
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
bronze