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Expectation Formation

Authors: Basit Zafar; Theresa Kuchler;

Expectation Formation

Abstract

We use novel survey panel data to estimate how personal experiences affect expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit cross-sectional and time series variation in differences in locally experienced house prices to show that respondents systematically extrapolate from personally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about US house price development. In addition, higher volatility of locally experienced house prices causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor market expectations, where we exploit within-individual variation in labor market status to estimate the effect of own experience on national labor market expectations. Personally experiencing unemployment leads respondents to be significantly more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. Extrapolation from personal experiences is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals for both housing and unemployment expectations.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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