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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2...
Article . 2001 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1...
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Conditional Volatility, Skewness and Kurtosis: Existence and Persistence

Authors: Eric Jondeau; Georg Michael Rockinger;

Conditional Volatility, Skewness and Kurtosis: Existence and Persistence

Abstract

Recent portfolio choice, asset pricing, and option valuation models highlight the importance of skewness and kurtosis. Since skewness and kurtosis are related to extreme variations, they are also important for Value-at-Risk measurements. Our framework builds on a GARCH model with a conditional generalized-t distribution for residuals. We compute the skewness and kurtosis for this model and compare the range of these moments with the maximal theoretical moments. Our model, thus allows for time-varying conditional skewness and kurtosis. We implement the model as a constrained optimization with possibly several thousand restrictions on the dynamics. A sequential quadratic programming algorithm successfully estimates all the models, on a PC, within at most 50 seconds. Estimators, obtained with logistically-constrained dynamics, have different properties. We apply this model to daily and weekly foreign exchange returns, stock returns, and interest-rate changes. This finding is consistent with findings from extreme value theory. Kurtosis exists on fewer dates and for fewer series. There is little evidence, at the weekly frequency, of time-variability of conditional higher moments. Transition matrices document that agitated stares come as a surprise and that there is a certain persistence in moments beyond volatility. For exchange-rate and stock-market data, cross-sectionally and at daily frequency, we also document co-variability of moments beyond volatility.

Keywords

Garch; stock indices; exchange rates; interest rates; SNOPT; VaR, GARCH Stock indices Exchange rates Interest rates SNOPT VaR, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:G12

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    selected citations
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    102
    popularity
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    Average
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
102
Average
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze