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Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2024
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Model Uncertainty in Commodity Markets

Model uncertainty in commodity markets
Authors: Álvaro Cartea; Sebastian Jaimungal; Zhen Qin;

Model Uncertainty in Commodity Markets

Abstract

Summary: Agents who acknowledge that their models are incorrectly specified are said to be ambiguity averse, and this affects the prices they are willing to trade at. Models for prices of commodities attempt to capture three stylized features: seasonal trend, moderate deviations (a diffusive factor), and large deviations (a jump factor) both of which mean-revert to the seasonal trend. Here we model ambiguity by allowing the agent to consider a class of models absolutely continuous w.r.t. their reference model, but penalize candidate models that are far from it. We show that the buyer (seller) of a forward contract introduces a negative (positive) drift in the dynamics of the spot price and enhances downward (upward) jumps so the prices they are willing to trade at are lower (higher) than that of the forward price under \({\mathbb{P}}\). When ambiguity averse buyers and sellers employ the same reference measure they cannot trade because the seller requires more than what the buyer is willing to pay. Finally, we observe that when ambiguity averse agents price options written on the commodity forward, the effect of ambiguity aversion is strongest when the option is at-the-money and weaker when it is deep in-the-money or deep out-of-the-money.

Country
United Kingdom
Related Organizations
Keywords

optimal control, ambiguity aversion, Derivative securities (option pricing, hedging, etc.), Knightian uncertainty, Existence theories for optimal control problems involving partial differential equations, commodities, robust pricing, Financial applications of other theories, certainty equivalent, indifference pricing

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    popularity
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    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Average
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze