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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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Forecasting Coherent Volatility Breakouts

Authors: Didenko, Alexander; Dubovikov, Michael; Poutko, Boris;

Forecasting Coherent Volatility Breakouts

Abstract

The paper develops an algorithm for making long-term (up to three months ahead) predictions of volatility reversals based on long memory properties of financial time series. The approach for computing fractal dimension using sequence of the minimal covers with decreasing scale (proposed in [1]) is used to decompose volatility into two0dynamic components: specific A (t ) and structural Hµ(t ). We introduce two separate models forA (t ) and Hµ(t ), based on different principles and capable of catching long uptrends in volatility. To test statistical significanceof its abilities we introduce several estimators of conditional and unconditional probabilities of reversals in observed and predicted dynamic components of volatility. Our results could be used for forecasting points of market transition to an unstable state.

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Keywords

fractal dimension, stock market; price risk; fractal dimension; market crash; ARCH-GARCH; range-based volatility models; multi-scale volatility; volatility reversals; technical analysis., price risk, arch-garch, technical analysis, stock market, ФОНДОВЫЙ РЫНОК, ЦЕНОВОЙ РИСК, ФРАКТАЛЬНАЯ РАЗМЕРНОСТЬ, КРАХИ РЫНКА, ARCH-GARCH МО- ДЕЛЬ, МОДЕЛИ ВОЛАТИЛЬНОСТИ КАК АМПЛИТУДЫ, МНОГОМАСШТАБНАЯ ВОЛАТИЛЬНОСТЬ, РАЗВОРОТЫ ВОЛАТИЛЬНОСТИ, ТЕХНИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ, arch-garch мо- дель, market crash, HG1-9999, range-based volatility models, volatility reversals, multi-scale volatility, Finance, jel: jel:C49, jel: jel:C14, jel: jel:C58, jel: jel:C5

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
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