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Are Prices Predictable in the Short Term?

Authors: Nhat Le;

Are Prices Predictable in the Short Term?

Abstract

Standard financial models assume that capital markets are fully efficient, which makes asset prices unforecastable. In contrast, the behavioral finance argues that markets may not be efficient, at least in the short term, given the limits to arbitrage. Combining both strands of literature, our paper provides evidence to suggest that multiple states of market efficiency may exist. More precisely, in this multi-equilibria world, “the market” can transit from one state to another and a shift in market norm affects price movements in a near future. Our empirical analysis suggests a possibility of asset price predictability in the short term, based on the evolutionary market efficiency.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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