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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Cumulative Prospect Theory and the Variance Premium

Authors: Lieven Baele; Joost Driessen; Juan M. Londono; Oliver G. Spalt;

Cumulative Prospect Theory and the Variance Premium

Abstract

Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) can explain the variance premium puzzle. We solve a simple equilibrium model with CPT investors and find that probability weighting plays a key role in generating a substantial variance premium, while loss aversion captures the equity premium. Using GMM on a sample of U.S. equity and index-option returns between 1996 and 2010, our estimate of the probability distortion parameter implies that real-world investors in option markets distort probabilities significantly, but less so than subjects in lab experiments. We also show that the CPT model prices the cross-section of out-of-the-money index options well. In a dynamic setting, probability weighting and time-varying equity return volatility combine to match the observed time-series pattern of the variance premium.

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    popularity
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    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
7
Average
Average
Top 10%
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