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Empirical Economics
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Debt and Financial Market Contagion

Authors: Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao; James Morley;

Debt and Financial Market Contagion

Abstract

We empirically investigate why financial crises spread from one country to another. For our analysis, we develop a new multiple-channel test of financial market contagion and construct indices of crisis severity in equity markets in order to examine how the transmission of shocks across countries can be related to direct linkages between countries or to common characteristics. Based on network analysis with our proposed multiple-channel test for crises between 2007 and 2021, we find that the Great Recession is the most pervasive across countries, followed by the European sovereign debt crisis and the recent COVID pandemic, with the subprime mortgage crisis being the least pervasive. Our main finding is that similar public, private and external debt characteristics are particularly helpful in explaining the transmission of financial shocks during crises. Fiscal deficits appear more important than current account deficits, while stage of economic development matters more than regional linkages, but none of these indicators is as important as debt.

Keywords

Contagion, Contagion, debt, European debt crisis, nancial crisis, Great Recession, trade linkages, regional linkages, COVID-19, Regional linkages, Great recession, Debt, Article, Coronavirus, 339, European debt crisis, debt, COVID, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:G01, jel: jel:G15

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    selected citations
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    22
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
22
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
Green
bronze