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Journal of International Economics
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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https://doi.org/10.24148/wp201...
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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EconStor
Research . 2014
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Betting the House

Authors: Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.;

Betting the House

Abstract

Abstract Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest rates unrelated to home economic conditions. We use novel instrumental variable local projection methods to demonstrate that loose monetary conditions lead to booms in real estate lending and house prices' bubbles; these, in turn, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era.

Keywords

monetary policy, Financial Crises, Monetary Policy, Leverage, Credit, House Prices, Local Projections, Instrumental Variables, N10, financial crises, ddc:330, house prices, monetary policy, financial crises, house prices, E02, E42, credit; financial crises; house prices; instrumental variables; leverage; local projections; monetary policy, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:E42, jel: jel:F41, jel: jel:G01, jel: jel:G21, jel: jel:E02, jel: jel:N20, jel: jel:E51, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E52, jel: jel:C38, jel: jel:E37, jel: jel:C14, jel: jel:N10

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    344
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
344
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 1%
bronze