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Noise Bubbles

Authors: Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Lippi, Marco; SALA, LUCA;
Abstract

We introduce noisy information in the determination of stock prices. Agents receive a noisy signal about the structural shock driving future dividend variations. The resulting equilibrium stock price includes a transitory component { the \noise bubble" { which can be responsible for boom and bust episodes unrelated to economic fundamentals. We propose a non-standard VAR procedure to estimate the structural shock and the \noise" shock, their impulse response functions and the bubble component of stock prices. We apply such procedure to US data and _nd that noise explains a large fraction of stock price volatility. In particular the dot-com bubble is entirely explained by noise. On the contrary the stock price boom peaking in 2007 is not a bubble, whereas the following stock market crisis is largely due to negative noise shocks.

Countries
Italy, Italy, Spain, Italy
Keywords

Noise shocks; Rational bubbles; Structural VARs, Economics and Econometrics, Structural VARs, Noise shocks, Rational bubbles, structural VARs, noise shocks, Rational bubbles, RATIONAL BUBBLES, STRUCTURAL VARS, NOISE SHOCKS, jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
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14
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34
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