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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2014
Data sources: EconStor
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Volatility Transfers between Cycles: A Theory of Why the 'Great Moderation' Was More Mirage than Moderation

Authors: Crowley , Patrick; Hughes Hallett , Andrew;

Volatility Transfers between Cycles: A Theory of Why the 'Great Moderation' Was More Mirage than Moderation

Abstract

In this paper we use a New Keynesian model to explain why volatility transfer from high frequency to low frequency cycles can and did occur during the period commonly referred to as the "great moderation". The model suggests that an increase in in‡ation aversion and/or a reduction to a commitment to output stabilization could have caused this volatility transfer. Together, the empirical and theoretical sections of the paper show that the "great moderation" may have been mostly an illusion, in that lower frequency cycles can be expected to be more volatile, given that there has been no apparent reversal in any of the policy parameters and hence in the volatility found in the low frequency cycles identi…ed by use of time-frequency empirical techniques. In fact, those cycles appear to have increased in power and volatility in both relative and absolute terms.

Keywords

ddc:330, time-frequency domain, C1, E3, E2, business cycles, New Keynesian model, New Keynesian model; business cycles; growth cycles; time-frequency domain; discrete wavelet analysis; Empirical Mode Decomposition, growth cycles, Empirical Mode Decomposition, discrete wavelet analysis, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E37, jel: jel:C14, jel: jel:E23

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Average
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze