
handle: 10419/103134 , 10419/84186
Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a potential driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the distinct dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy, we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors that account for the common dynamics in this dataset. These factors are interpreted as macroeconomic uncertainty. The first factor captures business cycle uncertainty, while the second factor represents oil and commodity price uncertainty. While both types of uncertainty generate a decline in output, time‐varying oil and commodity price uncertainty is more important for fluctuations in real activity. However, nonlinearities seem to amplify the effect of business cycle uncertainty during the global financial crisis. (JEL C32, C38, E32)
aggregate fluctuation, factor model, ddc:330, Macroeconomic uncertainty, factor model, factor-augmented VAR, aggregate fluctuation., macroeconomic uncertainty, factor model, aggregate fluctuations, aggregate fluctuations, Macroeconomic uncertainty, factor-augmented VAR, C38, C32, E32, macroeconomic uncertainty, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C38
aggregate fluctuation, factor model, ddc:330, Macroeconomic uncertainty, factor model, factor-augmented VAR, aggregate fluctuation., macroeconomic uncertainty, factor model, aggregate fluctuations, aggregate fluctuations, Macroeconomic uncertainty, factor-augmented VAR, C38, C32, E32, macroeconomic uncertainty, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C38
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 40 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
