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Economic Inquiry
Article
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Economic Inquiry
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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Research . 2014
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Research . 2013
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Dimensions of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis

Authors: Steffen Henzel; Malte Rengel;

Dimensions of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis

Abstract

Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a potential driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the distinct dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy, we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors that account for the common dynamics in this dataset. These factors are interpreted as macroeconomic uncertainty. The first factor captures business cycle uncertainty, while the second factor represents oil and commodity price uncertainty. While both types of uncertainty generate a decline in output, time‐varying oil and commodity price uncertainty is more important for fluctuations in real activity. However, nonlinearities seem to amplify the effect of business cycle uncertainty during the global financial crisis. (JEL C32, C38, E32)

Country
Germany
Keywords

aggregate fluctuation, factor model, ddc:330, Macroeconomic uncertainty, factor model, factor-augmented VAR, aggregate fluctuation., macroeconomic uncertainty, factor model, aggregate fluctuations, aggregate fluctuations, Macroeconomic uncertainty, factor-augmented VAR, C38, C32, E32, macroeconomic uncertainty, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:C38

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    40
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
40
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze