
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.250228
In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying correlations. We adopt the vech representation based on the conditional variances and the conditional correlations. While each conditional-variance term is assumed to follow a univariate GARCH formulation, the conditional-correlation matrix is postulated to follow an autoregressive moving average type of analogue. By imposing some suitable restrictions on the conditional-correlation-matrix equation, we construct a MGARCH model in which the conditional-correlation matrix is guaranteed to be positive definite during the optimisation. Thus, our new model retains the intuition and interpretation of the univariate GARCH model and yet satisfies the positive-definite condition as found in the constant-correlation and BEKK models. We report some Monte Carlo results on the finite-sample distributions of the MLE of the varying-correlation MGARCH model. The new model is applied to some real data sets. It is found that extending the constant-correlation model to allow for time-varying correlations provides some interesting time histories that are not available in a constant-correlation model.
BEKK models, constant correlation, Monte Carlo method, multivariate GARCH model, maximum likelihood estimate, varying correlation, BEKK model, constant correlation, Monte Carlo method, multivariate GARCH model, maximum likelihood estimate, varying correlation, jel: jel:C12, jel: jel:C22
BEKK models, constant correlation, Monte Carlo method, multivariate GARCH model, maximum likelihood estimate, varying correlation, BEKK model, constant correlation, Monte Carlo method, multivariate GARCH model, maximum likelihood estimate, varying correlation, jel: jel:C12, jel: jel:C22
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