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Does Historical Volatility Term Structure Contain Valuable Information for Predicting Volatility and Index Futures?

Authors: Juliusz Jabłecki; Ryszard Kokoszczyński; Paweł Sakowski; Robert Ślepaczuk; Piotr Wójcik;

Does Historical Volatility Term Structure Contain Valuable Information for Predicting Volatility and Index Futures?

Abstract

We suggest that the term structure of volatility futures (e.g. VIX futures) shows a clear pattern of dependence on the current level of VIX index. At the low level of VIX (below 20) the term structure is highly upward sloping; at the high VIX level (over 30) it is strongly downward sloping. We use those features to better predict future volatility and index futures. We begin by introducing some quantitative measures of volatility term structure (VTS) and volatility risk premium (VRP). We use them further to estimate the distance between the actual value and the fair (model) value of the VTS. We find that this distance has significant predictive power for volatility futures and index futures and we use this feature to design a simple strategy to invest in VIX index futures and S&P500.

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Keywords

volatility term structure, volatility risk premium, volatility and index futures, realized volatility, implied volatility, investment strategies, returns forecasting, efficient risk and return measures, jel: jel:G14, jel: jel:G15, jel: jel:C61, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:G23, jel: jel:G11

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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