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CAPM: un modelo absurdo (CAPM: An Absurd Model)

Authors: Pablo Fernandez;

CAPM: un modelo absurdo (CAPM: An Absurd Model)

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: El CAPM es un modelo absurdo porque sus hipotesis y sus conclusiones/predicciones son opuestas a la realidad (describen “un mundo” que no es el nuestro). La hipotesis mas extravagante es que los inversores tienen expectativas homogeneas (todos esperan la misma rentabilidad y la misma volatilidad de todas las acciones) y la prediccion mas contraria a la realidad es que la cartera de renta variable de todos los inversores es identica en su composicion: todas las acciones del mercado (“el mercado”). Es imposible determinar “la prima de riesgo del mercado” y “la beta de mercado de una empresa” porque tales numeros no existen debido a las heterogeneas expectativas de los inversores. De la hipotesis absurda de “expectativas homogeneas”, se derivan otros absurdos que se muestran en el apartado 3. Y si se aplica parcialmente surge la esquizofrenia del apartado 4. English Abstract: The CAPM is obviously contrary to common sense. The assumptions are senseless and the conclusions are untrue. It is an enormous error to use the historical beta as a proxy for the expected beta. First, because it is almost impossible to calculate a meaningful beta because historical betas change dramatically from one day to the next; second, because very often we cannot say with a relevant statistical confidence that the beta of one company is smaller or bigger than the beta of another; third, because historical betas do not make much sense in many cases: high-risk companies very often have smaller historical betas than low-risk companies; fourth, because historical betas depend very much on which index we use to calculate them.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
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