
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2460310
Winner’s percentage, a common measure of electoral competition in winner-take-all elections, measures the shift in vote shares required to produce changes in election outcome. Thus, winner’s percentage of the vote cast is a logical measure of winner-take-all competition. It treats equally shifts from higher to lower ranking candidates. A related measure, the Draw Index, even more clearly measures vote shifting needed to produce tied, then changed outcomes, with weighting by the preceding ties. A final adjustment, yielding the Draw Plus measure, provides a greater emphasis on the importance of a first change in outcome. Across all cases of five or fewer candidates, five measures of competition – including closeness and Rae’s Index of Fractionalization – are highly correlated. Methods of expanding these measures to include non-voters or no preference are explored in an appendix.
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