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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2014
Data sources: EconStor
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Are There Bubbles in Stock Prices? Testing for Fundamental Shocks

Authors: Anton Velinov; Wenjuan Chen;

Are There Bubbles in Stock Prices? Testing for Fundamental Shocks

Abstract

This paper investigates whether there are bubbles in stock prices. We do this using a previously studied structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model claiming to distinguish fundamental and non-fundamental shocks to real stock prices. The SVAR model relies on an identification restriction in order to correctly label the shocks. We test this restriction by means of a Markov switching-SVAR (MS-SVAR) model in heteroskedasticity. Using data from France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US we find that the restriction is rejected for Italy, supported at the 1% level for Japan and supported at least at the 5% level for the remaining countries. Several alternative specifications confirm the robustness of these findings. Using SVAR impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions we further examine the structural shocks and confirm the shock labeling for Japan. Through historical decompositions we observe that stock prices tended to be undervalued throughout the 1970s and 1980s. This undervaluation corrects itself by the mid 1990s, after which stock prices tend to move in tandem with their fundamentals. We therefore find no evidence in favor of stock price bubbles in all the countries invested.

Keywords

stock price fundamentals, ddc:330, structural vector autoregression, Markov switching model, E44, G12, C32, heteroskedasticity, Markov switching model, structural vector autoregression, heteroskedasticity, stock price fundamentals, C34, jel: jel:C34, jel: jel:E44, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:G12

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze