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Value at Risk (VaR) Backtesting Techniques and P-Value Risk Decomposition Analysis

Authors: Ali Shirazi;

Value at Risk (VaR) Backtesting Techniques and P-Value Risk Decomposition Analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to analyze the Value at Risk (VaR) backtesting probability values to detect the soundness of the VaR model, the integrity of the VaR input and output as well as providing information about the type of the risk that a subportfolio is exposed to in every trading day. The paper presets statistical methods to back test the number of VaR breaches when there is no or some autocorrelation in the P&L daily values. It illustrates a method to evaluate the model by backtesting all quintiles. It also presents a methodology to test the integrity of the P&L and consequently the p-values using the run test. Finally a model is presented to decompose the subportfolios’ P&L risk into systematic and idiosyncratic risk using a Gaussian Copula model. The risk decomposition can be used to detect any unusual subportfolio exposures to specific risk or detect the unusual rise in the systematic risk across different subportfolios.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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