
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2407200
Spanish Abstract: En este trabajo se presenta un marco teorico que conjunta y ordena sistematicamente, en cuanto a complejidad y realismo, varios modelos disponibles en la literatura especializada para estimar la distribucion de la volatilidad de los rendimientos diarios de indices bursatiles. Para tal fin se consideran los modelos discretos ARCH y algunas de sus extensiones, asi como los modelos de difusion en tiempo continuo. En el caso discreto, los modelos estiman la volatilidad por medio de la heteroscedasticidad condicional. Mientras que en el caso continuo, los modelos estiman la distribucion de la volatilidad a traves de procesos estocasticos de difusion, en cuyo caso se utiliza simulacion Monte Carlo. Por ultimo se comparan los resultados obtenidos con las diferentes metodologias para los indices bursatiles: S&P 500 de EEUU, indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (IPC) e indice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (IGBC) . English Abstract: This paper is aimed to present a theoretical framework that systematically joint and ordered, according to realism and complexity, several available models in the specialized literature useful to estimate the volatility distribution of stock indices. To this end, discrete ARCH models, and some of its extensions, as well as continuous time diffusion models are considered. In the discrete case, the models estimate volatility from the conditional heteroscedasticity. Meanwhile, in the continuous case, the models estimate the volatility distribution through diffusion stochastic processes, which allows using Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, the obtained results from the different methodologies are compared for the capital stock indices: S&P500 of the U. S.A., Index of Prices of the Mexican Stock Market (IPC) , and the General Index of Prices of the Colombian Stock Market (IGBC).
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